🚀 SPCX IPO — June 12, 2026

Profit Calculator

Nasdaq 100 inclusion squeeze · 15-day hold model · $165 IPO target

$
At $165 · you'd get 60 shares · spending $9,900
Bear
Nasdaq 100 only
S&P excluded
$250
Target range $220–$270
Your profit
+$5,152
+51.5%
Total value: $15,100
Base ★ Most likely
Nasdaq 100 + hype
15-day hold
$325
Target range $300–$360
Your profit
+$9,697
+97%
Total value: $19,697
Bull 🔥
S&P 500 fast-tracked
profitability waived
$450
Target range $400–$600
Your profit
+$17,272
+172.7%
Total value: $27,272
Custom price target — drag to explore
$100 $900
$325
Profit / Loss
+$9,697
Return %
+97.0%
Total value
$19,697
🛡 Trailing Stop — Lock in gains as price climbs
If price peaks then drops by this %, you exit — locking the rest as profit.
5% 15%
10%
Bear peak
Stop @ $225
+$3,600
+36%
Base peak
Stop @ $293
+$7,650
+76.5%
Bull peak
Stop @ $405
+$14,400
+145.5%
Auto-tighten rule: Trail at 10% baseline → tighten to 7% once up +15% → tighten to 5% once up +20%. Never move stop down. Never set within 3% of current price.
⏱ Key dates — when to exit before supply hits
Jun 12
IPO opens · zero insider supply
0%
BUY
~Jul 2
Nasdaq 100 inclusion effective
0%
PEAK
~Jul 2–3
20% unlock · 2nd day after 6/30 earnings
20%
EXIT 🔔
~Jul 14
Price trigger: >$214.50 for 5/10 days
+10%
DANGER
Aug–Oct
Tranches 1–5 · +7% every 2–3 weeks
→65%
WATCH
~Late Oct
💣 Earnings unlock · +28% all at once
93%
SELL
Dec 9
Full release · 100% tradable · re-entry watch begins
100%
RE-ENTRY
🚀 Long-term hold view

2030 Scenarios

4.5-year hold from IPO · Dec 2030 horizon · Starship + Starlink thesis

Bear
~25% probability
Starship slips. Starlink commoditizes. Musk drama hits multiple.
$150
Target $120–$180
Total P/L
-$1,500
-9.1%
CAGR (annualized)
-2.1%
Base ★
~45% probability
Starship works ~12mo late. Starlink at 50M subs. Steady compounding.
$270
Target $220–$320
Total P/L
+$10,500
+63.6%
CAGR (annualized)
+11.4%
Bull 🔥
~30% probability
Starship dominates launch. Starlink 80M+ subs. AI/space monopoly compounds.
$525
Target $400–$650
Total P/L
+$36,000
+218.2%
CAGR (annualized)
+28.9%
⚖ 15-day trade vs 2030 hold (base case)
15-day trade
Exit at Nasdaq inclusion peak
+$9,697
+97.0%
in 15 days
Hold to 2030
Ride lockup volatility · 4.5yr
+$10,500
+63.6%
11.4% CAGR
Trade wins on $ — same capital, near-identical profit, frees up cash 4.5yr earlier. Hold only beats trade if bull case plays out.
⚠ Risks that break any 2030 thesis
  • 1.Crewed launch failure — 12+ month grounding, immediate -40% rerate
  • 2.Musk exit / incapacitation — no succession plan, brand premium evaporates
  • 3.China Starlink-killer — subsidized free LEO internet kills Starlink in 50+ countries
  • 4.Kessler event — orbital debris cascade hits LEO economics permanently
  • 5.Lockup tranches dump — Aug–Dec 2026 supply shock could drag base case -25% before recovery
  • 6.AI bubble unwind — growth multiples compress 40% market-wide, hits SPCX regardless of fundamentals
Not financial advice. All scenarios based on Nasdaq 100 Fast Entry rule (effective May 1, 2026),
$1.75T IPO valuation target, and publicly reported lockup schedule from SpaceX S-1 filing.
IPO price, open price, and inclusion are not guaranteed. Trade at your own risk.